EXTERNAL IMPULSE AND INDIA'S FOREIGN TRADE!

                                                  INTRODUCTION

The topic under consideration is “external impulse and India’s foreign trade” that how recent global imbalances (the so-called global financial and economic crisis) has affected India’s foreign trade.

    September 2008, the fall of Lehman Brothers, Beginning of the collapse of Global economies, starting from the Housing Sector and finally entering the real sector, De-coupling theories with EMEs failed, the economic theories failed, the crisis spread the world over, the world stunned!!

        Contrary to the decoupling hypothesis, India too like other EMEs has been impacted by the crisis-and by much more than it was suspected earlier. Real GDP growth moderated to 7.8 per cent in the first half of 2008-09 as against 9.3 per cent in the first half of 2007-08 .The impact has been pronounced after the Lehman crisis and, as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D Subbarao (2009) has pointed out, it arises from three channels: the trade channel, the financial channel and the confidence channel. Here on I shall discuss the severity of the crisis on the India’s foreign trade.

        Today we are living in the era of Globalization. Undoubtedly there is financial and real integration of the Indian economy with the world economies, particularly after the introduction of the New Economic Policies of 1991. If crisis occurs in one country it will also impact the other economies through many channels. This is what has happened with the ongoing crisis crunch. It originated from the US and Western Europe and reached to most of the countries of the world through contagion effect. More or less, the crisis has affected almost all sectors of the Indian economy. But thanks to the sound financial sector and confident entrepreneurs that fundamentally the Indian economy has only been impacted through the trade channel.

Thus despite the domestic sector resilience slump in the demand from abroad has deteriorated our trade position and finally affecting our economy. Also over the years trade has occupied an important place in the growth momentum of the Indian economy. India's integration into the world economy over the last decade has been remarkably rapid. Integration into the world implies more than just exports. Going by the common measure of globalization, India's two-way trade (merchandize exports plus imports), as a proportion of GDP, increased from 21.2 per cent in 1997-98, the year of the Asian crisis, to 34.7 per cent in 2007-08. Hence we need to lay emphasis what has been the impact of the ongoing crisis on India’s foreign trade?

Throughout this article I have started with how India’s foreign trade has been affected due to slump in the demand from abroad and after what has been the impact of this slump?


                                                 ANALYTICAL RATIONAL

          The significance of the impact on external trade for the domestic economy arises on three counts. First, with the spectacular increase in both merchandise and services exports lasting for more than a decade, massive investment has been undertaken in export-oriented sectors, including SEZs. A sharp drop in export growth thus not only affects an economic slowdown through the multiplier process, but is also likely to cause debt default, bankruptcies, and severe cutbacks in investments in the pipeline with all their adverse implications encompassing both the financial and the real sectors. Second, given the share of exports at around 22% of GDP, the quantitative impact of a slowdown in exports on domestic demand is far more negligible. Third, crude oil, perhaps the most crucial intermediate input required for sustaining the production process, is the single-most important item of India’s merchandise import, accounting for around one-third of the total. Changes in international oil prices, it is thus no wonder, have major consequences for the Indian economy, remembering that demand for petroleum products is relatively price inelastic in the short run.

              Thus in a demand-constrained economy, a rough and ready measure of the growth-debilitating effect of external factors operating through the trade route is the current account deficit, reflecting the net leakage of domestic demand to the rest of the world. Judged by this index, the adverse impact of global developments transmitted through trade is fairly clear; since the fourth quarter of 2006-07 the current account deficit has continued to widen and was as high as 4.3% of GDP in the second quarter of 2008-09 and now it is $12.5 billion. However, the deficit is outcome of all factors, both domestic and external. Hence arises the need to examine the various ways in which global developments since the onset of the US sub-prime turmoil have affected India’s exports and imports of goods and services.

           FIRST, the slowdown in global GDP growth has constituted by far the most important factor constraining the country’s exports. Indeed, the extent of deceleration of world income does not fully reflect the seriousness of the problem faced by exporters. The OECD countries account for around 42% of India’s merchandise exports and practically the entire export of services, especially the high-growth ones. With services accounting for 37% of export earnings (including earnings from invisibles) in recent years, the precipitous fall in GDP growth and emergence of strong recessionary tendencies in advanced countries have constituted a major contractionary factor for the Indian economy. This is not to deny the importance of exports to developing countries whose share in merchandize exports jumped from 30.9% in 2001-02 to 42.3% in 2007-08. The important point to note in this connection is that, since the world income elasticity of demand for India’s exports appears to be quite high, the negative impact of a global economic meltdown on the country’s export earnings would tend to be correspondingly large.

              SECOND, the surge in international oil price inflation led to an increase in India’s crude import bill from $5.6 billion in August 2008, with the share of oil in total imports rising from 30.5% to 36.6% over this period. The quantitative significance of this doubling of oil imports may be appreciated from the fact that at its height the incremental (monthly) drain from the domestic demand on account of oil imports was about 6% of the country’s income and hence constituted a significant source of GDP deceleration during this period. (by the same logic the declining trend in the oil import bill should ceteris paribus be growth enhancing).

       THIRD, the global financial crisis, as already noted, affected exports and imports through a drying up of the supply of trade credit. Its net impact on India’s trade balance was perhaps favourable (though the overall effect of the crisis on aggregate demand, operating through the domestic banking system, was undoubtedly negative).

      Mounting difficulties faced by the US and other advanced country financial firms have led to a large-scale withdrawal of foreign funds, especially FIIs, from the Indian (and other EME) capital markets. The resulting depreciation of the rupee has helped limiting the GDP slowdown in two ways;

First; in the initial phase of the crisis, when the global meltdown was mostly in the financial and not so much in the real sector, currency depreciation provided a significant boost to the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Thus between October 2007 and August 2008 the NEER and REER indices declined from 93.3 and 106.1 to 88.6 and 99.6, respectively. During the same period, India’s earnings from merchandise exports in terms of dollars registered a whopping 33.3% (y-0-y) growth. It is only since then that the recessionary forces have become dominant everywhere and export growth plummeted and turned negative from October 2008 onwards.

Depreciation, it is worth noting, also helped in raising the purchasing power of export earnings over domestic consumption and investment. This is so even allowing for the pass through of higher prices of foreign goods (due to depreciation) to domestic prices. Hence arises the importance of focussing on the value exports (or imports) in terms of domestic products for purposes of assessing the effects of exchange rate movements on domestic demand.

When the depreciation is due primarily to the capital outflow, as happened during the earlier phase of the crisis, it would tend to produce a favourable impact on export and domestic demand. However, if it is the rising trade deficit due to declining world income that lies at the root of depreciation, it only moderates, but cannot reverse the contractionary forces transmitted through trade to the domestic sector. With the decline in export earnings due to the global economic downturn playing an increasingly greater role in driving down the value of the rupee, it is no wonder that since September 2008 there has been a significant fall in foreign exchange earnings from merchandise exports. Over January-February 2009, real exports registered an absolute decline, amounting to nearly 3%, even though there was a near 20% (y-o-y) depreciation of the rupee against the dollar during these two months. Indeed, since the demand for service exports are more (OECD-) income elastic, in recent months the (domestic) growth debilitating impact of the crisis operating through trade is much greater than that suggested by the decline in merchandize exports.

To be more precise as demand contracts in the affected economies exports from other countries are adversely impacted. The contraction in demand would stem not only from reduced incomes in the US, EU and Japan but also from the wealth effect arising out of substantial asset deflation currently under way in the US. A substantial proportion of our exports of key merchandise items are to the western economies (and Japan) which are in the grip of a recession-cum-depression situation. If we term these vulnerable exports, then as a proportion of our total exports they constituted nearly 22% in 2007-08. The prognosis for Indian exports in 2009 is rather gloomy because of the expected unabated fall in incomes in the economies of the US, EU and Japan. The IMF WEO estimates imports in advanced economies to decline by 3.1% in 2009, translating into a decline of 0.8% in the total exports of emerging and developing economies. In the Indian context, exports in January 2009 at $12,381 million were lower by 15.9% when compared to the corresponding figure last year. Among the sectors worst affected are gems and jewellery, textiles (and within textiles the handloom sector), leather and leather products, cotton and manmade yarn, tea, oil meals, marine products, carpets and handicrafts. As all these industries are highly labour intensive, the impact on employment is bound to be substantial. About 1.5 million jobs have already been lost or are in jeopardy in these sectors.

   The trade impacts are, however, not confined to merchandise trade alone but have split over into the exports of invisibles. As jobs shrink and incomes contract in the US and EU, private transfers and remittances from NRIs (which are shown on the current rather than capital account of the balance of payments in India) are likely to decline. Currently these stand at Rs 1, 63,709 crore for the year 2007-08 or about 3.48% of the GDP and represent a substantially significant item of the balance of payments. Another important category in the invisibles section of the current account is “miscellaneous services” (with software services as the major component followed by communication, financial and business services) accounting for about 3.32% of the GDP. This category is facing the prospect of a huge decline in exports as the major demand for these services (about 60%) is from the US (and especially its financial sector), which is in the vortex of the storm.

    If an economy falls into a recession, it will also impact its trading partners as well. A recession would imply less demand for overall products and services including import items. A recession also leads to lower investments and corporate would not be able to export their products and services. The first would affect the incomes of its export partners and second would affect the consumption levels of its importing partners.

   TRADE FINANCE; Banks are at the centre of the international trade as they provide trade finance and other financing facilities that facilitate trade. A problem in financial markets will disrupt the international trade as well. WTO and World Bank Chiefs have raised concerns over trade finance at numerous forums. This could undo a number of years of work on international trade. The Baltic Trade Index has already fallen to an all-time low and there are concerns that trade volumes might decline for the first time Hence, there are interlink ages between both the trade and finance channels and this makes the task of policymaker all the more difficult.

                                                  CONCLUSION

India’s accelerated trade in the recent past has caught the world’s attention. By any standard, Indian trade performance has greatly improved; export per capita has increased much more rapidly in the post-reform period than in earlier years. Although, with an import substitution policy in place, India took two decades (1950/51 to 1969/70) to cross the US$ 2 billion export mark, with a much more liberal policy the country crossed the US$ 20 billion export milestone after just two years from 1991. Over time, with greatly reduced barriers to international transactions, Indian participation in the international economy has improved rapidly. Today, with a 19 per cent per annum growth rate, India’s exports have passed US$ 169 billion (2008/09), while imports have increased to US$ 288 billion, having grown at about 25 per cent per annum since 2000/01. India’s trade growth rate in the present decade has thus been the highest of all the decades since the 1950s. Higher growth in the post-1991 period helped India not only to enlarge but also to diversify its exports. As India’s share in the world trade has gone up significantly to touch 1.5% share may cross 2% by 2009, despite the global economic turmoil. India’s success story in international trade is thus a well-documented case.

      However, the impact on trade has been severe, after registering an export growth of 29.02% and import growth of 35.4% during 2007-08, merchandize export growth fell 15% in dollar terms in October 2008. This is the first time in five-years that exports have actually shown a dip, reflecting the growing adverse impact of the global slowdown. If the present trend continues there is a danger that India will not achieve the export target of $200 billion for the current fiscal.

     The current crisis threatens to undo the economic development achieved by many countries and to erode people's faith in an open international trading system. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) (2009), “the collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly 9 per cent in volume terms in 2009, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War.” With the increasing integration of the Indian economy and its financial markets with rest of the world, there is recognition that the country does face some downside risks from the global economic and financial crisis. Nonetheless, if the crisis is prolonged, it will damage India’s trade pattern and production structure, which have been built up over time.

          As we know that the crisis originated in the US and spread to the world over. The underlying impact of the US crisis on India has primarily been experienced in the trade sector. In a recent meeting held in New Delhi it was concluded that the US financial crisis may have wreaked havoc in the world’s largest economy but India’s business with it has not been affected much, says a survey by the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce (IACC) released on this 25th November 2009. The IACC in its Indo-US Business Confidence Index (IUBCI) indicated that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis had little effect on the economic cooperation and business and entrepreneurial confidence between the two nations.

           In turning the present crisis into opportunities, there is no doubt that India has to unfold another set of reforms as it did in the aftermath of the 1991 crisis in order to enhance its global trade and to strengthen the globalization process. It should be remembered that, India comes much behind other emerging economies such as China in international trade. With a population of more than 1 billion and a US$ 1 trillion economy, India’s trade potential is largely unrealized. It should also be remembered “Behind every dark cloud there is a silver lining”

With the advent of 2009, economists are debating the extent of the impact of global meltdown on the Indian economy in 2009. The predictions range between somewhat optimistic to fairly pessimistic. But the common thread running is that 2009 will be challenging. There is also controversy among the Economists even in India that the dampening of the India’s foreign trade can be accrued purely to the recent global economic turmoil or not? However with the help of data to a considerable extent I have tried to establish the link between slumps in India’s foreign trade and global economic crisis. There is also debate among the experts that the crisis is just over or is it the sign of double-deep recession? Thereby influencing the direction and composition of India’s foreign trade and trade potential scenario significantly!


Source;

Economic Survey (2008-09).

Commerce Ministry website

Reserve Bank of India website

Economic and Political weekly (April 2009)

IMF (world economic outlook)


                                                          THANK YOU!!

THE PURSUIT OF ETERNAL HAPPINESS; HAPPINESS IS ELUSIVE.

THE PURSUIT OF ETERNAL HAPPINESS; HAPPINESS IS ELUSIVE

As we all agree on a view that the ultimate objective of life is happiness. We all live in a colourful world and different people of the world have different ways to attain happiness. Happiness is a conscious choice on the part of human being. It is a subjective and relative concept among the masses. Happiness is a universal bliss. Everybody wants to become happy. One who does not want to be happy is either God or Mad man. Though, happiness is a universal wish. Yet none of us lucky enough to get enough of it and get completely acquainted with it.

There are different ways of getting happiness through health, wealth, position and power. Peace and contentment is the minimisation of one’s wants.

A man always tries to get more and more and never gets tired of a thing. But we must always remember that “ We make a living by what we get, we make a life by what we give”.

As a matter of fact, meaning of happiness is generally misunderstood. Many people fail to differentiate between pleasure and happiness. Pleasure is short lived while happiness is long lasting, permanent and persistent. Pleasure is derived through a satisfaction of desire of the sense. While happiness is a matter of soul. Similarly we also confuse between success and happiness because we define success in terms of power and money so Success is not the key to happiness rather happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you are bound to be successful.

 Till now I have just tried to explain what is happiness? And how society endeavours to attain it? Why are we constantly chasing it? But all these things really confuse me that is it really happiness? Or to know happiness we just need to know what causes us to be happy which vary from person to person! Or does the society really attain it? Is the concept of happiness real or imaginary one? Happiness is slippery, elusive, illusion or is it really attainable? Our mind is often in conflict with itself!



We all seek happiness, yet, quite often we find it elusive. Like the spring mist, it is hard to hold on to. Why is it so?

Did you ever search a room for your eye glasses only to discover that they are propped up on your forehead all the time? Searching for happiness is like looking for glasses while you are wearing them. No wonder you cannot find happiness because it is not outside but inside you. It comes from within!

Happiness is what everybody wants but it is difficult to find it. What is happy to me might not cause happiness for you. Happiness can be a feeling or it can be a state of mind. Trying to define it is difficult. It is a subjective concept as I have stated above, with everyone having a different answer. For me, what is happiness? There is no such thing, Happiness is an illusion. It is so elusive because we think we know what it is and we know we want it but it does not exist. Happiness is an elusive goal. It is a conspiracy and controversy within. This is why, happiness is ephemeral. It is not what we have, but what we are, and also not what we possess but what we enjoy.

Every infant lives in a natural state of happiness. They are in awe of the world and experience joy with each discovery and accomplishment. However, as they grow, they are subjected to an endless barrage of criticisms from those around them. As a result, their psyche becomes filled with negative thoughts that prevent them from experiencing happiness.

Some people believe that they will be happy when they graduate or when they get a job or when they get promoted or when retire or when they are drunk or when they become a saint and so on. Happiness to them is always an elusive goal that is expected to arrive sometime in the future. But happiness is not contingent on things or events; it is not a destination but a state of being. It is not meant to be experienced in the future but at this very moment. Now our past is dead and our future is unborn. So, the only state of being happy is now and the way to be happy is to make others happy.

Remove the negativity from your mind and widen it up, because a positive mind anticipates happiness. We must learn to surrender to the flow of events, to accept what cannot be changed. Did someone cut you off on the highway? Someone may or will. But why get upset? Anger just fosters in your system and eats away at your happiness. Why get frustrated and why are we nursing a grudge within with the fear of future and kill all your happiness?

Here I would like to put a quote which has inspired me to write this article;

“ We find greatest joy”, not in getting but in expressing what we are. Men do not really live for honours or for pay; their gladness in not taking and holding, but in doing, It is good to get justice but better to do it, fun to have things but more to make them. The happy man is he who lives a life full of love, not for the honours it may bring, but for the life itself”.

It is common to we all that when we meet our near ones we just ask how are you? We usually reply fine! But are we really Ok, Fine or happy, of course not contented! But we reply positively because we anticipate happiness in future. How happy we are depends on how happy we think!

The unhappiness within cannot be completely satisfied by external events or circumstances. To find happiness in life we must first be at peace with ourselves internally. The more we get the more we want and never gets contented so there is no satisfaction, what we have is never enough to us...how can we expect for happiness. Humanity is on brink of its extinction and there is only ray of hope in peace which comes through satisfaction.

Happiness is a short run phenomenon. For me the happiest moment of my life is to do what others say you can’t. On the one hand we think that the secret of happiness is freedom and the secret of freedom is courage. On the other hand we experience we may have life and liberty but the pursuit of happiness is not going so well. Does not it seem to be an illusion to you all?

Hence you will never be happy if you continue to search for what happiness consists of? The pursuit of happiness is a most ridiculous phrase, if you pursue happiness you will never find it! There is only one happiness in life, to love and be loved!



Hey my intention is not to get you stuck in the elusive fact of happiness But to aware you all that don’t chase it constantly, you will never find it rather just accept it the way it comes to you. Finally just remember only one think which I have been following that Happiness comes from enjoying the daily small things of life!

ALL THE BEST; BE HAPPY AGAIN.

THE IMMORTAL INDIAN CULTURE.

                      

                                   THE IMMORTAL INDIAN CULTURE





Strange it may seem to you that in the present scenario, I am talking about the relevance of the Indian culture knowing the fact that India has been glamorised and globalized. But this is the liberal Indian culture which has glorified our tradition. Today to a large extent we have been able to remove the conservatism from the society and have made this culture appealing to the world ever without losing its essence.

As I think the advancement of a society causes modernisation which in turn transforms the paradigm of a culture but thanks to the genesis of the Indian culture which has not lost its significance rather in course of time has been able to rectify its errors and omissions, though exceptions are everywhere and do not be confused.

In brief, the essence of Indian culture lies in its ‘Unity in diversity’, the doctrine of universal love and brotherhood, the tolerant attitude and forgiving nature, respect for one another and finally connected with the socially accepted traditions. Though there are some hypocrites who act against some traditions and express themselves as modern but my simple argument to these people is that what’s wrong with you in following a tradition if it does not harass you nevertheless causes any value loss to you. Similarly there are some young people who flow with the stream; to them I would like to say that only dead fish can blow with the water, but very soon they get back to the origin because the root of Indian culture is so profound and strong that there is only possibility of short run disequilibrium. . Despite we have accepted modern means of living, improved lifestyle but our values and beliefs still remain unchanged. A person can change his way of clothing, way of eating and living but the rich values which are inherited within a person always remain unchanged because they are deeply rooted within our hearts, mind, body and soul which we receive from our culture. This is why ultimately we say ‘phir bhi dil hai hindustani’.



Friends the subject of Indian culture is a theme difficult to expound in the course of a short talk. The long history of this culture, its different expressions and its rich variety make it difficult to deal with it in the course of a few minutes, I want to make it easy and clearer in some small sentences or words, because, our Indian culture is too great or wide to discuss by mouth or with a pen.



What is culture? Culture means the total accumulation of material objects, ideas, symbols, beliefs, sentiments, values and social forms which are passed on from generation to the posterity in a given society. In lay man terms, culture is roughly anything we do and the monkeys don’t. In other words, culture is all about acquiring behaviour of a group. Hereby we should also notice the Supreme Court statement that Hinduism is not a religion it’s a culture and the followers of this tradition are called Hindus.



We should be proud to belong to a religion which has taught the world both tolerance and universal brotherhood. I am proud to tell you that according to our culture religions are a matter of experience and not of dogma or creed. From the times of Mauryas, Cholas, Mughals till to the period of British Empire, India has always been famous for its traditions and hospitality. So why we should not feel proud of Indian culture that it is India which has sheltered the invaders and refugees of all religion.



Does not it convince you that our culture is the greatest of all the cultures of the world? No other culture in the world is as rich, as varied, as vast and as long lasting as ours. No culture of any other country can be compared with it except the Chinese culture, but to some extent only. India is a country, which has Unity in diversity and on the other hand we, the Indian people, want to live a peaceful life and also want that others should also live peacefully. It naturally implies that we believe in the doctrine of universal love and brotherhood, that we want to live harmoniously with others. In spite of whatever differences there may be in our view points. It shows our tolerant attitude and our forgiving nature, that what we are.



Last but not the least I would like to tell you that for thousands of years, since the inception of the Indian culture we have been a point of attraction. This is why many a time we have been invaded, ruled, our knowledge has been tried to destroy, our civilization has been tried to misinterpret, the Languages have been attacked, hatred among the classes has been tried to spread and so on but the profound root of Indian culture has been able to synthesise and cope with all by distracting all the existing misconceptions without losing its identity, instead influenced and enchanted them all because this is the culture which has been rampant as air and has never stopped blowing. Its essence has been visible in the heart, body, mind and soul of its people ever since its inception till today!



THANK YOU!!

!! THE DILLEMA OF BEING ECCENTRIC !! (To Be Lost To Find).

                                 एक काल्पनिक व्यंग्य
 जैसा की शीर्षक " To be lost to find" से पाठकगणों को इसके मूल भाव को तलाशने में कठिनाई जरूर हो रही होगी लेकिन इसमें घबराने की जरूरत नहीं क्योंकि व्यंग्य वाक्यों को लोग तीसरी आँखों से पढना पसंद करते है इसलिए इसका यथार्थ  आपको इस गद्य का अद्यतन अध्ययन करने के बाद ही सुस्पस्ट हो पायेगा !

                                        कभी-कभी जब हम किसी जाने-अनजाने लोगो से मिलते है तो ऐसा प्रतीत होता है की वह एक खोये-खोये से रहने वाला व्यक्ति है जबकि वास्तविकता तो यह है की वह (ऐसा सोचने वाला) खुद खोया रहता है या फिर इस कटु सत्य को खुद के लिए स्वीकार करने के लिए सहमत नहीं हो पाटा है या फिर खुद को ही ठीक से पहेचान नहीं पा रहा होता है और न केवल वह बल्कि हम सभी खोये होते है अपनी रंगीन या सादी दुनिया में केवल फर्क इतना होता है की कुछ लोग कम खोये होते है और शेष खोये-खोये-खोये......से रहते है! खोना तो मनुष्य का सहज-असहज स्वाभाव है, इसके बिना तो वह अपने सफल जीवन की परिकल्पना भी नहीं कर सकता!

                                              लेकिन अब प्रष्न ये उठता है की यह "खोना" होता क्या है? तो मै आपको बता देता हूँ की ये खोना जिश सन्दर्भ की बात मै कर रहा हूँ का कतई सम्बन्ध कुछ अपना कीमती (जैसा की कलियुग मै ज्यादातर लोग यही समझते है) खो जाने से नहीं है! यहाँ अपना का मतलब उससे है जिसे सिर्फ आप महसूश कर सकते है, ये आपके अन्दर अंतर-निहित है और दूसरा अपना का मतलब कुछ वैसे वस्तु से है जो आपके करीब है, उसे आप छु सकते है (material-wellbeing)! तदनुसार मेरा तो खोने का सम्बन्ध कुछ खो जाने से नहीं बल्कि कुछ पाने के लिए कुछ आतंरिक खो जाने से है!

                                           अगर हम अपने इर्द-गिर्द के सामजिक वातावरण पर गौर फरमाते है तो पाते है की जो लोग कुछ पाने के लिए कुछ खोये से रहते है और पाने मै असफल हो जाते है तो या तो वे मानसिक रूप से विछिप्त हो जाते है या फिर समाज उन्हें पागल करार देता है! क्योंकि खोये-खोये से रहने वाले आम नहीं होते वो इमली होते है और बबूल के काँटे की भाति समाज को चुभते रहते है!

                                    हर लिखावट मै लेखक के अपने अनुभव की सच्चाई छुपी होती है और लेखक के उस सच की अनुभूति करने से पाठक लेखक के सोच को समझ पाटा है और वो अनुभव घटित या काल्पनिक हो सकते है यह लेखक के दूरदृष्टिता पर निर्भर करता है! हमें पता है की समाज मै आम लोगो की संख्या ज्यादा होती है तभी तो वो आम है और तभी तो समाज एक भीड़-भेड़ तंत्र है वर्ना लेखक की तरह सभी समाज के लोग इमली और बाबुल के कांटो की तरह होते और एक दुसरो को चुभते रहते तो  फिर सायद किसी के खोने न खोने का प्रश्नचिह्न ही नहीं खड़ा होता ना ही सवालिया निसान उठते! और सायद  तभी तो समाज लेखक (इमली लोगो) के सोच को समझ नहीं पाता है और उन्हें वो लोग खोये-खोये से रहने वाले पागल या बेवकूफ समझ लेते है! लेकिन मुर्ख कौन? ये हमारे मानस पटल पर सवालिया निसान छोड़ जाते है!

                              अगर हम उदहारण की सुरुवात स्वामी विवेकानंद से करते है तो पाते है की जीवन के १७ वे साल तक हमेशा खोये-खोये से रहे यहाँ तक की वो तो कुछ दिनों तक अपने कमरे मे पड़े रहे और सुसुप्ता अवस्था मे खोज मे खोये रहे ! उस समय तो समाज ने उन्हें असहज समझा!
    माननीय पूर्व राष्ट्रपति ए पि जे अब्दुल कलाम के साथ भी कुछ ऐसी ही स्थिति है!

आइंस्टाइन ने जब एक सेब के पेड़ से सेब को निचे गिरते हुए देखा तो उसके मन मे एक प्रष्न खड़ा हुआ की ये सेब निचे ही क्यों गिरा ऊपर क्यों नहीं गया ये बात समाज ने सुनकर उन्हें अपने मजाक का पात्र बनाया लेकिन जब उन्होंने  " Law of Gravitation" प्रतिपादित किया तो सायद सबके सर शर्म से घूक गए और तभी तो आइंस्टाइन ने कहा था की मै चाहता हूँ की समाज मेरा साथ देने से मुकर जाये क्योंकि उस समय मै उस काम को खुद अंजाम दे देता हूँ! बस जरुरत है

सच्ची लगन की और सोयी  हुई उर्जा को खोकर जगाने की!

            When we look outside, we dream
             When we look within, we awaken ourselves!! 
   
लेखक John Nash एक महान mathematician जिसने Nash equilibrium दिया एवं  noble prize भी जीता  से काफी  प्रभावित  है क्योंकि john Nash भी हमेशा खोये-खोये  से रहे वे schizophrenia से ग्रसित  हुए क्योंकि उनकी सोच ही कुछ ऐसी थी और अपने सोच को वास्तविक रूप देने के लिए schizophrenia का सिकार होना  उनकी मजबूरी थी!

  He stated 'i do not like the people because people do not like me'

लेकिन जब उन्होंने अपने काम का वास्तविक अंजाम  दिया तो सायद  सभी लोगो  ने उन्हें पसंद  किया!क्योंकि
 समाज आपके जीवन का मूल्यांकन अंत मे आप कितने सफल है से करती है!
    
एक महान अर्थसास्त्री जो छः महीनो तक अपने घर के साथ और बाकी के छः महीनो इन सब से दूर अकेली अवस्था  मे रहकर अपने काम मे व्यस्त रहता  था तो क्या उसका यह अकेलापन  एक सूनापन  नहीं है जो कुछ पाने के उदेश्य  से किया जा रहा है  और सायद  तभी तो  वह महान कहलाया और लोग महान कहलाते है!

Adam Smith जिन्हें अर्थासास्त्र का जनक माना जाता है, He suffered from 'absense mindness' throughout his life. और Absense mind का मतलब सायद खोये खोये रहने से ही तो है! जो भीड़ मे भी अकेला होता है, समाज के साथ रहकर भी अपने आप मे खोया रहता है और अपने लक्ष्य के प्रति हमेशा अग्रसर रहता है क्योंकि समाज की सुने तो सायद अपने लक्ष्य प्राप्ति के मार्ग से भटक जाए!

         यहाँ मै एक छोटा सा द्रिस्तांत आपके समक्ष रखना चाहूँगा;

एक बार बाप और बेटे अपने एक कमजोर घोड़ी के साथ गंतव्य की और प्रस्थान कर रहे थे, उस घोड़ी पर एक समय मे सिर्फ एक लोग ही बैठ सकते थे, बाप घोड़ी पर बैठा हुआ था कुछ पथिकों ने व्यंग्य किया कैसा बाप है बेटा पैदल चल रहा है और बाप घोड़ी पे मजे ले रहा है, बाप उतर गया और बेटे को घोरी पे बिठा दिया आगे कुछ और पथिक मिले उन्होंने भी व्यंग्य कसने मे कोई कोताही नहीं बरती की कैसा बेटा है खुद बैठा हुआ है और बाप पैदल चल रहा है, आगे जाकर दोनों ही घोड़ी के साथ पैदल पगडण्डी भरने लगे, आगे कुछ महानूभाओ ने भी उन्हें लज्जित करने से नहीं चुके और बोले कितने बेवकूफ लोग है जो घोड़ी के होते हुए पैदल यात्रा कर रहे है! (Shame on these people).

          तो खोये से हुए पाठक ये समाज है, एक बहुरंगी और बिचित्र दुनिया, सबको अपने सोचने का एक नजरिया होता है, और जरुरी नहीं की तुम्हारे सोच को दूसरा भी समझ सके,तुम्हारे सोच को तुम्हारे नज़रिए से soche और न ही तुम्हारे पास समाज को समझाने का वक़्त है! और यही misunderstanding, misconception, dillema और  confusion का वजह होता है!

"we see the world the way we are and not the way it is, Everything depends on your prospective of thinking"

इसीलिए तो सुनो सबकी लेकिन करो अपनी, अपने अंतरात्मा की आवाज़ को सुनो जो कभी झूठ नहीं बोलता, तदापि इस आवाज को सुनने के लिए अपने आप मे खोने की ज़रुरत होती है, अपने पात्र की पात्रता को बढाने की ज़रुरत होती है! हम खुद नहीं जानते की मै कौन हूँ, हम अपने अन्दर छुपी हुई असीमित उर्जा को पहेचान नहीं पाते और जिस दिन जान ले उस दिन कुछ भी असंभव नहीं होगा! जैसा की आप लोगो को भी ज्ञात होगा की इस संसार मे किसी भी व्यक्ति ने अपने दिमाग का १० वा हिस्सा भी इस्तेमाल नहीं कर पाया है! लेकिन इन सबके लिए अध्यात्म की भासा मे अपनी 'kundaliya shakti' जगाने की ज़रुरत होती है और इसे के लिए अपने कर्मिन्द्रियों तथा ग्यानिन्द्रियों पर अंकुश लगाने अत्यंत ही आवश्यक है, मन बचन और कर्म के बिच सामंजस्य बनाने की ज़रुरत होती है, योग और प्राणायाम इसमें सहायक सिद्ध होते है! और आपको क्या लगता है की ये सब इतना आसान है इन सबके लिए गहरी चिंतन और मनन की ज़रुरत होती है, अपने अंदर खो कर झाकने के कला की ज़रुरत होती है!

वैसे मैंने अपने दुसरे Article " The mind and its control: the pursuit of eternal happiness" मे इसकी बृहद चर्चा की है!

                               कुछ काल्पनिक पात्रो पर ध्यान देंगे जैसे की देल्ही-६ का खोये-खोये से रहने वाला पात्र (जिसे समाज ने पागल करार है) फटेहाल  मे सबको आइना दिखाते चलता  है और लोगों को याद दिलाता  है ' पहेचान  अपने आप को अपने अन्दर छुपे इंसान को और निकाल दो बाहर उस सैतान को  ' लेकिन भीड़   को इतनी समझ ही कहा है!
                              या फिर फिल्म तारे ज़मीन पर का वह बच्चा जो हमेशा खोया-खोया सा रहता था लोग उसे मुर्ख  समझते  थे लेकिन उसके अन्दर छुपी  हुई कला  को किसी ने नहीं देखा!

               यदि हम कालांतर तथा वर्त्तमान पर नज़र डालते है तो पाते है की ऋषि-महर्षि सत्य की खोज मे हमेशा खोये-खोये से और शांत रहे है, वो सूनापन ही तो है जो पुण्यात्मा को समाधि मे खो जाने की शक्ति देता है! या फिर फिर स्वयं भगवान् जो खुद हमेशा खोये होते है, चाहें वो बुध, महावीर, क्रिस्ट, पैगम्बर हो या फिर शिव या विष्णु!

                एक कवी भी तो जब कुछ लिख रहा होता हो तो वो भी तो खोया हुआ ही न होता है तभी तो कहते है 'जहा न जाये रवि तहा जाए कवी'! हम सभी बिद्यार्थी है और सायद हम सभी को ही ज़िन्दगी मे कभी न कभी खोने का मौका ज़रूर मिला होगा, सिर्फ एक अनुभूति की ज़रुरत है इसे सोचने के लिए! साधू हो या साराबी, राजा हो या फिर रंक और फकीर, रोगी और भोगी हो या फिर एक योगी यह सभी ही तो एक सोच मे खोये से हुए होते है! कभी-कभी हमारे पास अपने बिचार को ब्यक्त करने के लिए अभिव्यक्ति नहीं होती उस समय भी तो हमारी स्थिति कुछ ऐसी ही होती है न! तो फिर यह सामजिक सोक कैसा?

 पाठक गड़ यहाँ ध्यान दे की लेखक अपनी तुलना कतई नहीं ऊपर वर्णित लोगो से करना चाहता है और ना ही उन लोगो की तरह बनने की तमन्ना रखता है बस वह तो इतना बताना चाहता है की खोना मनुष्य का एक सहज स्वाभाव है और समाज के आम लोग इसे असहेज ना समझे, खोना हमारा यथार्थ है यही तो सफल जीवन का सोपान है! दुनिया के जितने भी सफल लोग है वो सभी जीवन के किसी ना किसी मोड़ पर खोये-खोये से रहे हुए होते है और सायद तभी वो साकार है! सूनापन तो ज़न्म से लेकर मृत्यु तक का एक सफर है, ज़ब हम पैदा होते है या फिर.....!

               बस ज़रुरत है की दोस देना छोडो और खो कर खुद को पहेचानो! अपने जीवन के मूल रहस्य को खोजो और खो जाओ उसे पाने के लिए, सफलता एक ना एक दिन तुम्हारे कदम अवश्य ही चूमेगी!

     ह्म्म्म्म्म्म्म.............तो आप भी खो जाए इस काल्पनिक लेकिन सत्य व्यंग्य मे!

    हाँ,         Remember again,

" God helps those who help themselves".                   
                  !! happy reading and thanks to your patience!!

The controversy of OBC reservation in Academics and Jobs.

The current official estimates (2009) states that the rural OBC population is only 38.5%, whereas the Mandal commission report stated it is 52%. Now the recent NSSO report has falsified the Mandal commission report.
          
                  So knowing the fact that this OBC population only constitutes 38.5% of rural population, what is the need for giving reservation in academics and Jobs around 50% without developing the conducive atmosphere, infrastructure and facilitating qualititative education. Even in AP this ration is around 43% but they rule the political scenario by their strong numerical muscle. Bihar one of the most backward states of the country now comprises of only 34% of rural OBC population. The CM of Bihar himself is ab OBC.

                                       The policymakers who introduced reservation for the disadvantaged in institutions such as the IIT and the IIM without ever bothering to give then access to high quality school education put the cart before the horse. What the politicians really did was to invite the disadvantaged to a veritable Barmicide's feast! only the so-called creamy layer benefit from the reservation. The most effective aaffirmation action in the field of education would have been to provide adequate facilities for quality school education to children of the weaker sections.

                                       In any purposeful programme to achieve inclusive growth, the pride of place should go to education, particularly quality school education. So what is now needed is to reseve 50% seats in existing and future public schools (like Navodaya, netrahaat, sainik school etc) for children of the disadvantaged. This simple, inexpensive step will be a boon to the poor without creating class conflicts and crushing the other sections of the society. So there is need for social inclusion like this way without creating controversies.

                                         

                                 We see that many OBC students do not aaply for jobs and all under reservation quota and leave to the other unprivileged group. So what  we need is to allow and facilitate this reservation quota to the deserving candiates irrespective of which class they belong. Hence we need to rethink else the inequalty in the society will be doomed to prevail and antagonism among the classes will burst out!! 

The Bullshit democratic concept in AP politics!

After the sad demise of the CM of Andhra Pradesh (mr. Y.S.Reddy), a movement was initiated particularly by the partymen and then invoking the common people (misusing their sentiments) in accordance with a political agenda to make Mr. Jagan (the son of the late CM) as the CM of the respective state. But i just do not agree with this move. Though neither i am concerned with the Politics of AP nor wanna interefere in this regard. But what i personally feel is in brief as follows;
 Firstly, It is democracy the people elect their representatives according to their own swweet wiill. So we should not consider our leaders as rulers as happens to be in the case of Monarchy that the son of a king becomes the son, otherwise it is a monarchy.

Secondly, If other experienced and well respected people are already in politics what is the point to ascend the CM throne to MR Jagan since he also lacks experience and even too young. However i do not doubt his potentiality.

        Here the Jagan flatteres are following the principle " hit the iron when it is hot" at the cost of people's sentiment.

      Is it the democratic concept? OOoooooff.
                    

SUPREME COURT INSTRUCTION!

The supreme court has instructed to clear the 3 crore backlog cases by 2012 is fine, But it should come along with other administrative reforms to strengthen the whole judicial system then it could well mark the dawn of a new judicial future.

!A CRITIC ON CONSIDERING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AS FAILURE OF ECONOMICS!

Hello friends , I thought this article which published in "The economist " will clarify your doubts regarding the current financial crisis and will be able to reply some of doubts of the "jenious" on the economic theory failure on current financial crisis.




IN DEFENCE OF THE DISMAL SCIENCE

Aug 6th 2009





In a guest article, Robert Lucas, the John Dewey Distinguished Service

Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, rebuts criticisms

that the financial crisis represents a failure of economics



THERE is widespread disappointment with economists now because we did

not forecast or prevent the financial crisis of 2008. THE ECONOMIST's

articles of July 18th on the state of economics were an interesting

attempt to take stock of two fields, macroeconomics[1] and financial

economics[2], but both pieces were dominated by the views of people who

have seized on the crisis as an opportunity to restate criticisms they

had voiced long before 2008. Macroeconomists in particular were

caricatured as a lost generation educated in the use of valueless, even

harmful, mathematical models, an education that made them incapable of

conducting sensible economic policy. I think this caricature is

nonsense and of no value in thinking about the larger questions: What

can the public reasonably expect of specialists in these areas, and how

well has it been served by them in the current crisis?



One thing we are not going to have, now or ever, is a set of models

that forecasts sudden falls in the value of financial assets, like the

declines that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers in September.

This is nothing new. It has been known for more than 40 years and is

one of the main implications of Eugene Fama's "efficient-market

hypothesis" (EMH), which states that the price of a financial asset

reflects all relevant, generally available information. If an economist

had a formula that could reliably forecast crises a week in advance,

say, then that formula would become part of generally available

information and prices would fall a week earlier. (The term "efficient"

as used here means that individuals use information in their own

private interest. It has nothing to do with socially desirable pricing;

people often confuse the two.)



Mr Fama arrived at the EMH through some simple theoretical examples.

This simplicity was criticised in THE ECONOMIST's briefing, as though

the EMH applied only to these hypothetical cases. But Mr Fama tested

the predictions of the EMH on the behaviour of actual prices. These

tests could have come out either way, but they came out very

favourably. His empirical work was novel and carefully executed. It has

been thoroughly challenged by a flood of criticism which has served

mainly to confirm the accuracy of the hypothesis. Over the years

exceptions and "anomalies" have been discovered (even tiny departures

are interesting if you are managing enough money) but for the purposes

of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting these departures are too

small to matter. The main lesson we should take away from the EMH for

policymaking purposes is the futility of trying to deal with crises and

recessions by finding central bankers and regulators who can identify

and puncture bubbles. If these people exist, we will not be able to

afford them.



THE ECONOMIST's briefing also cited as an example of macroeconomic

failure the "reassuring" simulations that Frederic Mishkin, then a

governor of the Federal Reserve, presented in the summer of 2007. The

charge is that the Fed's FRB/US forecasting model failed to predict the

events of September 2008. Yet the simulations were not presented as

assurance that no crisis would occur, but as a forecast of what could

be expected conditional on a crisis not occurring. Until the Lehman

failure the recession was pretty typical of the modest downturns of the

post-war period. There was a recession under way, led by the decline in

housing construction. Mr Mishkin's forecast was a reasonable estimate

of what would have followed if the housing decline had continued to be

the only or the main factor involved in the economic downturn. After

the Lehman bankruptcy, too, models very like the one Mr Mishkin had

used, combined with new information, gave what turned out to be very

accurate estimates of the private-spending reductions that ensued over

the next two quarters. When Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed,

warned Hank Paulson, the then treasury secretary, of the economic

danger facing America immediately after Lehman's failure, he knew what

he was talking about.



Mr Mishkin recognised the potential for a financial crisis in 2007, of

course. Mr Bernanke certainly did as well. But recommending pre-emptive

monetary policies on the scale of the policies that were applied later

on would have been like turning abruptly off the road because of the

potential for someone suddenly to swerve head-on into your lane. The

best and only realistic thing you can do in this context is to keep

your eyes open and hope for the best.



After Lehman collapsed and the potential for crisis had become a

reality, the situation was completely altered. The interest on Treasury

bills was close to zero, and those who viewed interest-rate reductions

as the only stimulus available to the Fed thought that monetary policy

was now exhausted. But Mr Bernanke immediately switched gears, began

pumping cash into the banking system, and convinced the Treasury to do

the same. Commercial-bank reserves grew from $50 billion at the time of

the Lehman failure to something like $800 billion by the end of the

year. The injection of Troubled Asset Relief Programme funds added more

money to the financial system.



There is understandable controversy about many aspects of these actions

but they had the great advantages of speed and reversibility. My own

view, as expressed elsewhere, is that these policies were central to

relieving a fear-driven rush to liquidity and so alleviating (if only

partially) the perceived need for consumers and businesses to reduce

spending. The recession is now under control and no responsible

forecasters see anything remotely like the 1929-33 contraction in

America on the horizon. This outcome did not have to happen, but it did.



NOT BAD FOR A DARK AGE

Both Mr Bernanke and Mr Mishkin are in the mainstream of what one

critic cited in THE ECONOMIST's briefing calls a "Dark Age of

macroeconomics". They are exponents and creative builders of dynamic

models and have taught these "spectacularly useless" tools, directly

and through textbooks that have become industry standards, to

generations of students. Over the past two years they (and many other

accomplished macroeconomists) have been centrally involved in

responding to the most difficult American economic crisis since the

1930s. They have forecasted what can be forecast and formulated

contingency plans ready for use when unforeseeable shocks occurred.

They and their colleagues have drawn on recently developed theoretical

models when they judged them to have something to contribute. They have

drawn on the ideas and research of Keynes from the 1930s, of Friedman

and Schwartz in the 1960s, and of many others. I simply see no

connection between the reality of the macroeconomics that these people

represent and the caricature provided by the critics whose views

dominated THE ECONOMIST'S briefing.



THANKS,

THINK POSITIVE ABOUT THE RECENT CRISIS!

Of course, we are having financial mess all over the world but should we get afraid of it and loose our confidence or keep watching and waiting for the economy to recover! why don't we think this crunch as boon and get benefitted and rectify all our errors and ommissions.

September 2008, the fall of Lehman Brothers, Beginning of the collapse of Global economies, starting from the Housing Sector and finally entering the real sector, De-coupling theories with EMEs failed, the crisis spread the world over, the world stunned!!


Against all odds I am optimistic and see it as an opportunity. History reveals that after a crisis is over there has been a prosperity scenario.

Newton's third law says "Every action has equal and opposite reaction"

which was proved long ago. We know that at present the world is suffering because of this financial crunch .Then cant we expect any positive impact of today's financial crisis on our economy? Being a rational creature it is the human tendency to find out a positive way out in order to get prove its efficiency in negative scenario.

                "Behind every dark cloud there is a silver lining"

Today the world is in a financial mess. Everyone is talking about financial crisis all over the world. But nothing lasts for long. Everyday we can't expect our economy to be in boom. The economy tends to move in various phases i.e. from expansion to peak and then peak to recession and along the way of "Phase to recovery" and once again to peak. This is because of two human emotions, Greed during expansion as the cause and sufferance during recession as the result.



The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which some financial institutions or assets suddenly lose a large part of their value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises and sovereign defaults. The current financial crisis is the worst of its kind since the great depression of 1930s. It becomes prominently visible in September 2008 with the failure of several large us-based financial firms. The global financial meltdown has spelt disaster for the world economy in general and for the US and the European economies in particular. But surprisingly when world's developed economies are suffering, there the developing countries like India and China are still spending money in many projects. Do we need to believe that Indian growth story is over? The answer is a big no. India is still to enter its golden phase of growth. This is the time for India to march on and look for opportunities to make its presence felt on the global economic map.

As we know that;

  " optimist see oportunity in every difficulty,
    whereas pessimist see difficulty in every opportunity"



To conclude, let us hope for a stronger India by rectifying all its economic weaknesses after this so called financial crunch.